PHM 2019 Keynote Speech 1

A Brief History and Principles of Prognostics


Concept of Prognostics started with Hippocrates (460-370BC). Hippocrates started the development of medicine based on the scientific approach and Hippocratic Corpus became the foundation for future medicine. A brief history of prognostics and underlying assumptions and principles are presented. It is based on the evolution from open systems to feedback systems, diagnostics, prognostics and continuous future trends and development related to feedforward system control. Impact of recent growth of technologies related to internet of things [IoT] and artificial intelligence [AI] is presented to develop prognostics for PHM.


Kailash [Kal] Kapur avatar
Kailash [Kal] Kapur USA

Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, USA

Dr. Kailash [Kal] C. Kapur is a Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering in the College of Engineering at the University of Washington, Seattle. He was the Director of Industrial Engineering at the University of Washington from January 1993 to September 1999. He was a Professor and the Director of the School of Industrial Engineering, University of Oklahoma from 1989-1992 and a professor in the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering at Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan. Dr. Kapur received the Ph. D. degree in Industrial Engineering & Operations Research from the University of California, Berkeley, California. He has co-authored three books on reliability engineering and published over 100 research papers. He received the Allan Chop Technical Advancement Award from the Reliability Division and the Craig Award [twice] from the Automotive Division of American Society for Quality. He is a Fellow of American Society for Quality, a Fellow of the Institute of Industrial Engineers, and a registered professional engineer.